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020 _a9789400775510
_9978-94-007-7551-0
024 7 _a10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0
_2doi
050 4 _aHB848-3697
072 7 _aJHBD
_2bicssc
072 7 _aSOC006000
_2bisacsh
082 0 4 _a304.6
_223
100 1 _aSmith, Stanley K.
_eauthor.
245 1 2 _aA Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
_h[electronic resource] /
_cby Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson.
264 1 _aDordrecht :
_bSpringer Netherlands :
_bImprint: Springer,
_c2013.
300 _aXV, 411 p. 26 illus.
_bonline resource.
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
490 1 _aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,
_x1389-6784 ;
_v37
505 0 _aChapter 1: Rationale, Terminology, Scope -- Chapter 2: Fundamental  of Population Analysis -- Chapter 3: Overview of the Cohort-Component Method -- Chapter 4: Mortality -- Chapter 5: fertility -- Chapter 6: Migration -- Chapter 7: Implementing the Cohort-Component Method -- Chapter 8: Extrapolation Methods -- Chapter 9: Structural and Microsimulation Models -- Chapter 10: Special Adjustments -- Chapter 11: Related Projections -- Chapter 12: Evaluating Projections -- Chapter 13 Forecast Accuracy and Bias -- Chapter 14: A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections -- Epilogues: Some Final Thoughts -- Glossary -- Index.
520 _aThis book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections.    The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources.   This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
650 0 _aSocial sciences.
650 0 _aDemography.
650 1 4 _aSocial Sciences.
650 2 4 _aDemography.
650 2 4 _aMethodology of the Social Sciences.
700 1 _aTayman, Jeff.
_eauthor.
700 1 _aSwanson, David A.
_eauthor.
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Online service)
773 0 _tSpringer eBooks
776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9789400775503
830 0 _aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,
_x1389-6784 ;
_v37
856 4 0 _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0
912 _aZDB-2-SHU
942 _2Dewey Decimal Classification
_ceBooks
999 _c48979
_d48979